Expected goals
1.5 - 1.3
Model estimate
Scottish Premiership · 2024/2025
Historical record
Ross County
Kickoff
2024-12-21 15:00:00
VS
1 - 2
St. Mirren
Fixture: HistoricalLifecycle: historicalData: historical dataset
Intelligence overview
Balanced match
Highest 1X2 estimate 37%. Probabilities are tightly grouped; no strong winner headline is shown.
Model
analysis-v1
sportmonks-football-501-23690-v1
Publication
historical
Public view hides drafts
33%
Confidence
Probability board
Exact model percentages, never bookmaker odds.
Home37%
Model-estimated probability, not odds.
Draw29%
Model-estimated probability, not odds.
Away34%
Model-estimated probability, not odds.
Over 1.584%
Model-estimated probability, not odds.
Over 2.550%
Model-estimated probability, not odds.
BTTS72%
Model-estimated probability, not odds.
A probability is an estimated chance from the local model context. It is not an outcome promise and is not bookmaker odds.
Evidence engine
Reasons are grouped for readability using available local data context.
Form
The model favours home win from pre-match team context.
Source context: 2024/2025 / local dataset
Attack
Over 1.5 goals is the strongest supported indicator.
Source context: 2024/2025 / local dataset
Defence
Confidence is labelled low, so this estimate should be treated cautiously.
Source context: 2024/2025 / local dataset
Home/Away
The model favours home win from pre-match team context.
Source context: 2024/2025 / local dataset
League context
Over 1.5 goals is the strongest supported indicator.
Source context: 2024/2025 / local dataset
Schedule/rest
Confidence is labelled low, so this estimate should be treated cautiously.
Source context: 2024/2025 / local dataset
Match intelligence upgrade
Current context signals
Extra local context from completed historical samples. These signals explain the page; they do not change the V1 prediction.
Historical goal climate
2.61
Average goals involving these teams in local samples.
Model expected goals70%
2.8 total expected goals from V1
Draw tendency sample
25%
Combined draw share across both team samples.
Model draw probability29%
V1 draw estimate shown for transparency.
Review caution
Cautious
Low-confidence analysis should avoid strong wording.
Confidence33%
Manual publication remains required.
Team comparison
Historical context from 2024/2025 and 2024/2025, 2025/2026.
Ross CountyMetricSt. Mirren
0.97
Overall PPG1.12
0.97
Goals for1.09
1.71
Goals against1.49
38
Sample76
Ross County form
LLLDD
PPG 0.97 · GF 37 · GA 65
St. Mirren form
LLLWD
PPG 1.12 · GF 83 · GA 113
Ross County win rate24%
St. Mirren win rate29%
Draw share sample25%
Home team signal
Ross County
LLLDD
Points profile
0.97 PPG
9W 10D 19L sample
Goals for
0.97
37 scored across local sample
Goals against
1.71
65 conceded across local sample
Win share24%
Draw share26%
Loss share50%
Away team signal
St. Mirren
LLLWD
Points profile
1.12 PPG
22W 19D 35L sample
Goals for
1.09
83 scored across local sample
Goals against
1.49
113 conceded across local sample
Win share29%
Draw share25%
Loss share46%
AI MATCH ANALYSIS
Generated from verified statistical data
Detailed AI analysis is being prepared
Private AI draft text is hidden until numerical prediction approval, AI validation and manual AI review are complete.
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