Expected goals
2 - 0.8
Model estimate
Scottish Premiership · 2024/2025
Historical record
Aberdeen
Kickoff
2025-01-02 15:00:00
VS
1 - 2
Ross County
Fixture: HistoricalLifecycle: historicalData: historical dataset
Intelligence overview
Home win
Low confidence, strongest supported indicator: Over 1.5 goals.
Model
analysis-v1
sportmonks-football-501-23690-v1
Publication
historical
Public view hides drafts
48%
Confidence
Probability board
Exact model percentages, never bookmaker odds.
Home62%
Model-estimated probability, not odds.
Draw23%
Model-estimated probability, not odds.
Away15%
Model-estimated probability, not odds.
Over 1.584%
Model-estimated probability, not odds.
Over 2.550%
Model-estimated probability, not odds.
BTTS62%
Model-estimated probability, not odds.
A probability is an estimated chance from the local model context. It is not an outcome promise and is not bookmaker odds.
Evidence engine
Reasons are grouped for readability using available local data context.
Form
The model favours home win from pre-match team context.
Source context: 2024/2025 / local dataset
Attack
Over 1.5 goals is the strongest supported indicator.
Source context: 2024/2025 / local dataset
Defence
Confidence is labelled low, so this estimate should be treated cautiously.
Source context: 2024/2025 / local dataset
Home/Away
The model favours home win from pre-match team context.
Source context: 2024/2025 / local dataset
League context
Over 1.5 goals is the strongest supported indicator.
Source context: 2024/2025 / local dataset
Schedule/rest
Confidence is labelled low, so this estimate should be treated cautiously.
Source context: 2024/2025 / local dataset
Match intelligence upgrade
Current context signals
Extra local context from completed historical samples. These signals explain the page; they do not change the V1 prediction.
Historical goal climate
2.68
Average goals involving these teams in local samples.
Model expected goals70%
2.8 total expected goals from V1
Draw tendency sample
22%
Combined draw share across both team samples.
Model draw probability23%
V1 draw estimate shown for transparency.
Review caution
Standard
Still not a guarantee or betting recommendation.
Confidence48%
Manual publication remains required.
Team comparison
Historical context from 2024/2025, 2025/2026 and 2024/2025.
AberdeenMetricRoss County
1.22
Overall PPG0.97
1.16
Goals for0.97
1.53
Goals against1.71
76
Sample38
Aberdeen form
WDWLL
PPG 1.22 · GF 88 · GA 116
Ross County form
LLLDD
PPG 0.97 · GF 37 · GA 65
Aberdeen win rate34%
Ross County win rate24%
Draw share sample22%
Home team signal
Aberdeen
WDWLL
Points profile
1.22 PPG
26W 15D 35L sample
Goals for
1.16
88 scored across local sample
Goals against
1.53
116 conceded across local sample
Win share34%
Draw share20%
Loss share46%
Away team signal
Ross County
LLLDD
Points profile
0.97 PPG
9W 10D 19L sample
Goals for
0.97
37 scored across local sample
Goals against
1.71
65 conceded across local sample
Win share24%
Draw share26%
Loss share50%
AI MATCH ANALYSIS
Generated from verified statistical data
Detailed AI analysis is being prepared
Private AI draft text is hidden until numerical prediction approval, AI validation and manual AI review are complete.
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