Expected goals
1.8 - 1.3
Model estimate
Scottish Premiership · 2024/2025
Historical record
Dundee
Kickoff
2025-05-14 18:45:00
VS
1 - 1
Ross County
Fixture: HistoricalLifecycle: historicalData: historical dataset
Intelligence overview
Home win
Low confidence, strongest supported indicator: Over 1.5 goals.
Model
analysis-v1
sportmonks-football-501-23690-v1
Publication
historical
Public view hides drafts
46%
Confidence
Probability board
Exact model percentages, never bookmaker odds.
Home51%
Model-estimated probability, not odds.
Draw27%
Model-estimated probability, not odds.
Away22%
Model-estimated probability, not odds.
Over 1.589%
Model-estimated probability, not odds.
Over 2.557%
Model-estimated probability, not odds.
BTTS74%
Model-estimated probability, not odds.
A probability is an estimated chance from the local model context. It is not an outcome promise and is not bookmaker odds.
Evidence engine
Reasons are grouped for readability using available local data context.
Form
The model favours home win from pre-match team context.
Source context: 2024/2025 / local dataset
Attack
Over 1.5 goals is the strongest supported indicator.
Source context: 2024/2025 / local dataset
Defence
Confidence is labelled low, so this estimate should be treated cautiously.
Source context: 2024/2025 / local dataset
Home/Away
The model favours home win from pre-match team context.
Source context: 2024/2025 / local dataset
League context
Over 1.5 goals is the strongest supported indicator.
Source context: 2024/2025 / local dataset
Schedule/rest
Confidence is labelled low, so this estimate should be treated cautiously.
Source context: 2024/2025 / local dataset
Match intelligence upgrade
Current context signals
Extra local context from completed historical samples. These signals explain the page; they do not change the V1 prediction.
Historical goal climate
2.97
Average goals involving these teams in local samples.
Model expected goals78%
3.1 total expected goals from V1
Draw tendency sample
24%
Combined draw share across both team samples.
Model draw probability27%
V1 draw estimate shown for transparency.
Review caution
Standard
Still not a guarantee or betting recommendation.
Confidence46%
Manual publication remains required.
Team comparison
Historical context from 2024/2025, 2025/2026 and 2024/2025.
DundeeMetricRoss County
1.09
Overall PPG0.97
1.3
Goals for0.97
1.82
Goals against1.71
76
Sample38
Dundee form
LWWLW
PPG 1.09 · GF 99 · GA 138
Ross County form
LLLDD
PPG 0.97 · GF 37 · GA 65
Dundee win rate29%
Ross County win rate24%
Draw share sample24%
Home team signal
Dundee
LWWLW
Points profile
1.09 PPG
22W 17D 37L sample
Goals for
1.3
99 scored across local sample
Goals against
1.82
138 conceded across local sample
Win share29%
Draw share22%
Loss share49%
Away team signal
Ross County
LLLDD
Points profile
0.97 PPG
9W 10D 19L sample
Goals for
0.97
37 scored across local sample
Goals against
1.71
65 conceded across local sample
Win share24%
Draw share26%
Loss share50%
AI MATCH ANALYSIS
Generated from verified statistical data
Detailed AI analysis is being prepared
Private AI draft text is hidden until numerical prediction approval, AI validation and manual AI review are complete.
Related intelligence
- 1Motherwell vs Dundee United2026-09-02 18:45:00Scottish Premiership
- 2St. Mirren vs Motherwell2026-08-29 14:00:00Scottish Premiership
- 3Kilmarnock vs Dundee United2026-08-29 14:00:00Scottish Premiership
- 4Hearts vs St. Johnstone2026-08-29 14:00:00Scottish Premiership