Expected goals
1.4 - 1.2
Model estimate
Scottish Premiership · 2024/2025
Historical record
Ross County
Kickoff
2025-05-18 14:00:00
VS
1 - 1
Motherwell
Fixture: HistoricalLifecycle: historicalData: historical dataset
Intelligence overview
No clear favourite
Highest 1X2 estimate 40%. Confidence is low, so the UI avoids a strong recommendation.
Model
analysis-v1
sportmonks-football-501-23690-v1
Publication
historical
Public view hides drafts
42%
Confidence
Probability board
Exact model percentages, never bookmaker odds.
Home32%
Model-estimated probability, not odds.
Draw28%
Model-estimated probability, not odds.
Away40%
Model-estimated probability, not odds.
Over 1.581%
Model-estimated probability, not odds.
Over 2.545%
Model-estimated probability, not odds.
BTTS70%
Model-estimated probability, not odds.
A probability is an estimated chance from the local model context. It is not an outcome promise and is not bookmaker odds.
Evidence engine
Reasons are grouped for readability using available local data context.
Form
The model favours away win from pre-match team context.
Source context: 2024/2025 / local dataset
Attack
Over 1.5 goals is the strongest supported indicator.
Source context: 2024/2025 / local dataset
Defence
Confidence is labelled low, so this estimate should be treated cautiously.
Source context: 2024/2025 / local dataset
Home/Away
The model favours away win from pre-match team context.
Source context: 2024/2025 / local dataset
League context
Over 1.5 goals is the strongest supported indicator.
Source context: 2024/2025 / local dataset
Schedule/rest
Confidence is labelled low, so this estimate should be treated cautiously.
Source context: 2024/2025 / local dataset
Match intelligence upgrade
Current context signals
Extra local context from completed historical samples. These signals explain the page; they do not change the V1 prediction.
Historical goal climate
2.68
Average goals involving these teams in local samples.
Model expected goals65%
2.6 total expected goals from V1
Draw tendency sample
26%
Combined draw share across both team samples.
Model draw probability28%
V1 draw estimate shown for transparency.
Review caution
Cautious
Low-confidence analysis should avoid strong wording.
Confidence42%
Manual publication remains required.
Team comparison
Historical context from 2024/2025 and 2024/2025, 2025/2026.
Ross CountyMetricMotherwell
0.97
Overall PPG1.45
0.97
Goals for1.38
1.71
Goals against1.3
38
Sample76
Ross County form
LLLDD
PPG 0.97 · GF 37 · GA 65
Motherwell form
WLDLW
PPG 1.45 · GF 105 · GA 99
Ross County win rate24%
Motherwell win rate39%
Draw share sample26%
Home team signal
Ross County
LLLDD
Points profile
0.97 PPG
9W 10D 19L sample
Goals for
0.97
37 scored across local sample
Goals against
1.71
65 conceded across local sample
Win share24%
Draw share26%
Loss share50%
Away team signal
Motherwell
WLDLW
Points profile
1.45 PPG
30W 20D 26L sample
Goals for
1.38
105 scored across local sample
Goals against
1.3
99 conceded across local sample
Win share39%
Draw share26%
Loss share34%
AI MATCH ANALYSIS
Generated from verified statistical data
Detailed AI analysis is being prepared
Private AI draft text is hidden until numerical prediction approval, AI validation and manual AI review are complete.
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