Scottish Premiership - 28275

Current lifecycle fixture

Aberdeen

Kickoff

2026-08-01 16:30:00

Hearts

Fixture: Approved analysisLifecycle: publishedData: 13/07/2026, 10:11:17 | analysis-v1

Share analysis

Share this match intelligence

Public reviewed analysis only. No odds, staking advice, or profit claims.

X Facebook WhatsApp Telegram LinkedIn

Intelligence overview

No clear favourite

Highest 1X2 estimate 42%. Confidence is low, so the UI avoids a strong recommendation.

Expected goals

Aberdeen: 1.3

Hearts: 1.5

Home xG / Away xG

Model

analysis-v1

live-local

Publication

published

Public view hides drafts

37%

Confidence

Low confidence

Cautious estimate

AI MATCH ANALYSIS

Validated reportScottish PremiershipModel gpt-5-mini

Aberdeen v Hearts — Away-leaning outcome with low model confidence; goals market favours Over 1.5

The model assigns Hearts the highest single outcome probability (42% away win) against Aberdeen (30% home win, 28% draw) with expected goals 1.3 (Aberdeen) and 1.5 (Hearts) for a combined 2.8. Key market signals: 84% chance of over 1.5 goals, 50% for over 2.5 and 72% BTTS. Confidence is low (37). Sample sizes are very small (1 home, 1 away match used), so treat the lean toward an away win and the goals signal as indicative rather than decisive.

Match Outlook

The highest-probability single outcome is an away win (Hearts) at 42%, producing an interpretation classification of 'away_lean'. The model's confidence score is 37 (labelled Low), and the top-two gap (difference between the highest and next-highest outcome probabilities) is 12 percentage points, signalling a modest separation but not a robust forecast.

Current Form

The model used one recent match from each side (matchesUsedHome = 1, matchesUsedAway = 1). Within that limited sample the data-driven reason list flags that the away side has the stronger recent form trend ('H2 have the stronger recent form trend'). Given a single-match input per side, that form signal has limited reliability and contributes to the low overall confidence.

Aberdeen: 1 - Only one home match was included in the model sample; form signal for Aberdeen is very weak.
Hearts: H2 have the stronger recent form trend. - Model flagged the away team’s short-term trend as a factor but this is drawn from a single-match sample.

Home vs Away

Expected goals are 1.3 for Aberdeen (home) versus 1.5 for Hearts (away). The small difference (0.2 xG) aligns with a modest away lean in the match outcome probabilities (42% away win vs 30% home win). Again, the underlying sample is one match per side, so home/away inferences should be treated cautiously.

Aberdeen: 1.3 - Suggests moderate attacking output expected from Aberdeen at home in the model estimate.
Hearts: 1.5 - Slightly higher expected scoring from Hearts on the road, supporting the away-lean outcome probability.

Goals Outlook

Combined expected goals equal 2.8 (1.3 + 1.5). The model assigns an 84% probability to over 1.5 goals and a 50% probability to over 2.5. Both teams to score probability is 72%, indicating statistical support for both sides finding the net.

Over 1.5

At 84% probability, Over 1.5 is the strongest market signal in the model output.

Over 2.5

A 50% probability for Over 2.5 represents an even split — neither strongly affirmative nor strongly negative for three-plus goals.

BTTS

BTTS at 72% is a pronounced signal that both sides have modelled scoring potential on this dataset.

Expected goals

Aberdeen: 1.3

Hearts: 1.5

Match: 72% - Strong probability both sides score according to the model.
Match: 2.8 - Combined xG supports a moderate-to-open game.

Key Strengths

Hearts

Highest single-outcome probability

Hearts hold the top single-outcome probability at 42% and a slightly higher expected goal total (1.5), giving the model a measurable away-lean.

Both teams

Goals profile supports open game

Combined xG of 2.8 plus 84% Over 1.5 and 72% BTTS indicate the statistical profile favours goals from both sides.

Key Risks

Very small sample size

The model used only one recent match for each side (provenance.matchesUsedHome = 1, matchesUsedAway = 1), which limits the robustness of form and home/away signals.

Low overall confidence

Confidence score is 37 (label 'Low'); outcome probabilities should be treated as a modest lean rather than a strong forecast.

Model weaknesses in draw calibration

Known limitation: 'Draw prediction is a known V1 weakness', which affects the reliability of the 28% draw probability.

Final Verdict

Model leans to an away win for Hearts, with a stronger signal for Over 1.5 goals; overall confidence is low.

Hearts are the single most probable outcome (42%) and expected goals slightly favour the away side (1.5 v 1.3). The clearest statistical market is Over 1.5 goals (84%) and BTTS (72%) also registers strongly. All signals come from a very small sample (one match per side), and the model flags draw calibration as a weakness, so treat this as a directional view rather than a high-certainty forecast.

Confidence language: Low (confidence score 37). This remains an analytical view, not a guaranteed selection.

Model Transparency

Analysis Engine V1 calculates the probabilities. The AI writer explains the verified inputs and does not alter numbers, add odds, or claim certainty.

Data Used

Source datasets: live-local. Generated 2026-07-13T10:13:45.837Z.

Limitations

- Confidence calibration remains weak.
- Draw prediction is a known V1 weakness.
- Historical accuracy does not prove future performance.
- No profitability measurement exists.
- Performance varies by league and season.